Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $588,648$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{670,067.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(670,067.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,714$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,862.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 191.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43,862.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $87,017$ on 2020-10-28

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $312,550$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{596,001.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 231.0)}}\) (asimptote \(596,001.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,494$ on 2020-10-28

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,013$ on 2020-10-28

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $463,951$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{533,385.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 184.7)}}\) (asimptote \(533,385.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,770$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,755.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 156.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,755.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,171$ on 2020-10-28

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $114,434$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,358.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 132.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,358.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,208$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,298.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,298.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,166$ on 2020-10-28

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,022$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,330.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 166.6)}}\) (asimptote \(88,330.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $317$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{329.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(329.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,008$ on 2020-10-28

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $123,906$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,518.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 152.0)}}\) (asimptote \(123,518.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $763$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{673.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(673.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,220$ on 2020-10-28

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,276$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,744.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47,744.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,138$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,172.3}{1 + 10^{-0.888 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,172.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,501$ on 2020-10-28

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $346,047$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,750.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(337,750.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,348$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,376.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,376.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,149$ on 2020-10-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Qatar recovered 92%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Israel recovered 83%
United Arab Emirates recovered 77%
Uzbekistan recovered 76%
Maldives recovered 69%
Tajikistan recovered 61%
Bahrain recovered 57%
India recovered 41%
Bangladesh recovered 33%
Nepal recovered 15%

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,939$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,510.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(122,510.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $230$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(215.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,825$ on 2020-10-28

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,024$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,298.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 187.1)}}\) (asimptote \(151,298.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $485$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{405.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(405.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,892$ on 2020-10-28

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $66,141$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,930.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 152.4)}}\) (asimptote \(69,930.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $558$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{573.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(573.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,260$ on 2020-10-28

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,591$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,835.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 171.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,835.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 101.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $869$ on 2020-10-28