Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $588,648$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{670,067.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(670,067.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,714$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,862.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 191.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43,862.7\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $87,017$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,550$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{596,001.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 231.0)}}\) (asimptote \(596,001.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,494$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,013$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $463,951$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{533,385.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 184.7)}}\) (asimptote \(533,385.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,770$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,755.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 156.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,755.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,171$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $114,434$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,358.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 132.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,358.0\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,208$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,298.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,298.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,166$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,022$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,330.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 166.6)}}\) (asimptote \(88,330.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $317$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{329.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(329.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,008$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $123,906$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,518.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 152.0)}}\) (asimptote \(123,518.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $763$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{673.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(673.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,220$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $57,276$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,744.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47,744.0\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,138$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,172.3}{1 + 10^{-0.888 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,172.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,501$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $346,047$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,750.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(337,750.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,348$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,376.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,376.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,149$ on 2020-10-28